Last week in Review
Forex & Commodities: Central Banks Scramble Rates
Central Banks continue to scramble to find a sweet spot for their national interest rates as inflationary numbers and events outpace rate changes. Pre-existing supply chain crunches continue to be exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war clearly escalated into an economic war between the West & Russia when Russia halted fuel shipments to NATO members Poland & Bulgaria. The US Dollar. often serves as safe-haven currency when Europe or Asia are in crisis.
US Dollar Soars to 20 Year High Vs. JPY & EUR
Historians might find it incredulous how Putin comes out of this conflict without unsavory concessions he will find unpalatable. Remember, US stocks and indices are priced against the USD. So, May Stocks Crash as Dollar Roars to a 20 year high against the EUR and JPY? Further escalation of the conflict in Europe or complacency of the Bank of Japan could even push the USD to higher highs.
Stocks & Indices: Market Crashes? NAS100 has worst month since 2008
Amazon (AMZN) suffered over a 15% or $150 billion USD correction after reporting disappointing 2022 first-quarter earnings. With Amazon’s market value over $1.5 trillion before the release, the fall has Bears salivating and Bulls wondering if this a good time to enter long positions at a discount price.
One trader had some serious trades set up to make some serious money on Amazon if it became “oversold.”
It’s not everyday a $1 trillion plus asset like Amazon becomes “oversold.”
This Big Play is scalable where 14 $10,000 USD trades were set up in the same strategy for a potential $760,000 USD profits or 14 $1,000 USD trades for $76,000 USD. How would you try fine tuning it for even better results? Back-test your idea and let us know.
Cryptocurrencies: Is this the Dip? Will Cryptos Show Relative Strength & Rebound?
Bitcoin struggled trying to broach $40,000 resistance level. Shorts were bolstered by a majority of future orders for April 29th sitting at 40K plus buys. Market sentiment couldn’t get there and the month long bearish trend continued. BTC tests it’s 3 month support. Will the Bulls get another 10K rebound to the high end of the current channel or break the support?
Here’s one sample strategy a trader sent in. How would you improve the results?
When back testing a strategy, if the results do not meet your needs then try changing one condition at a time and back test again. Otherwise, you might not know what the issue was when creating other strategies on other assets.
A strategy with the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) can account for more recent movements than a regular Moving Average
What’s Up and Coming this Week?
Stocks & Indices: No Trillion USD Players but Opportunities Still Exist
The NAS100 (NASDAQ) experienced it’s worst month in April since 2008. No trillion USD companies reporting this week with AMD & Starbucks on Tuesday and CVS & Moderna Wednesday featured as the biggest players. Surprises in job numbers or interest rates might help Bulls gather their nerve to stop the hemorrhaging indices. No surprises, Bears might continue to flex their muscles though there might be some dead cat bounces and opportunistic buying along the way.
Forex & Commodities : Have the EUR & JPY Gone As Low as they will go?
The USDJPY shows an interesting channel for traders.
Some of this week’s Major Events on the Economic Calendar GMT time.
Monday, May 2 German (EUR) 7:55 & USA (USD) 14:00 Manufacturing reports start off the week . May Day holidays around the world markets slow the weeks rollout although the USA, Canada, New Zealand and most of Australia celebrate “Labor Day” on a different date.
Tuesday, May 3 The Royal Bank of Australia (AUD) 04:30 announces any interest rate changes in the early hours. German Unemployment (EUR) 7:55, British Manufacturing PMI (GBP) 8:30 and New Zealand Unemployment (NZD) 22:45 provide trading opportunities throughout the day.
Wednesday, May 4 Australian Retail Reports (AUD) 01:30 play off the previous day’s rate announcement. while the day offers strong USA (USD) reports with ADP (private USA payroll numbers) at 12:15, Non-Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 and the US Fed Rate (USD) announcement roars at 18:00. Commodity traders eye weekly US crude oil inventories (WTI) earlier at 14:30.
Thursday, May 5 The UK (GBP) takes the stage with morning PMI reports at 8:30 and inflation numbers at 11:00 at the same time as Bank of England interest rates.b
Friday, May 6 USA (USD) & Canada (CAD) NFP unemployment numbers at 1230 caps off a week that is full of promising trading opportunities.
Cryptocurrencies: Who let the Doge out? Musk!!! Musk!!!
Cryptos are showing relative strength this week when you look at how hard other assets are suffering against a strong USD.
Here’s one example of a strategy a trader might consider if they were preparing for the right entry before and exit after Elon Musk’s next Crypto related Tweet.